solar by numbers

22 panels · 15 kWh battery · Hampshire

Payback so far

day 108 · £11,999 system
£413.08

Saved compared with what the same usage would have cost with no solar and no battery. Worked out every night from the inverter's readings.

£0£11,999
3.4% recovered proposal pace: 5.0%

Vs proposal

69%

of its projected pace

Like for like

95%

excluding income we can't get yet

At this rate

8.6yr

vs 5.4 quoted

Full charts →

Yesterday

Saturday, 26 September 2026

Generated

26.8kWh

Exported

21.2kWh

earned £2.54 at 12p

Imported

21.0kWh

Day's saving

£6.71

vs a no-solar baseline

Axle VPP earnings · grid events

£82.51

£69.39 paid for 12 grid-balancing events at £1/kWh, plus £13.12 topping quiet months up to the £10 minimum. These figures come from Axle's own statement, which doesn't always match our meter.

Axle £25 referral

Got a battery? We both get £25.

Tariff · Intelligent Octopus Go

8p overnight

We left the 24.5p flat fix on 14 September, five months early (reasons here). Intelligent Octopus Go gives us 7 hours at 8p every night, in time for the heat pump. Export started paying 12p on 22 September. Before that, £299 worth of surplus went to the grid unpaid.

Octopus Energy £50 referral

Switching? We both get £50.

What each decision is worth

modelled · once the heat pump is in

This section is modelled. Everything else on this page is measured from the inverter. These figures describe the finished house: heat pump installed, gas gone, on an 8p overnight tariff and paid for export. The tariff and export are live now; the heat pump goes in this December. We'll swap in measured numbers once it's been running a while.

Solar, battery and the VPP what we'd lose if the panels and battery came off but the car and heat pump stayed £3,117 The electric car against the petrol Qashqai and diesel C4 it replaced, at September 2026 pump prices £1,573 The heat pump against the 19-year-old gas boiler, at the 7.39p market gas price £838

Without any of it

£5,003/yr

£1,754 electricity, £1,427 gas, £1,822 petrol and diesel.

With all of it

£341/yr

£591 of electricity, less £250 of VPP earnings. No gas bill, no fuel bill.

These don't add up to the total. The three figures add up to £5,528, but the real total is £4,662. Each change is worth more when the others are in place, because every new load gives the battery and the cheap overnight window more to do. Each figure is fine on its own, but they can't be added together. The combined figure is £4,662 a year.

One roof, every number published

An ordinary UK house that spent £12k on solar and a battery. We wanted to know whether the installer's payback estimate was right, so the real figures go up every night, including the cloudy days. It's all run with Home Assistant and Predbat, and the config files are public too, in case they save someone else the faff.

Hardware

The system

22 Aiko 475W panels on an east/west roof, a Sigenergy hybrid inverter and 15.06 kWh of battery. £11,999 fully installed.

Specs & warranties →

Software

The software

Home Assistant on a £50 second-hand Dell, running Predbat, which replans every half hour using the tariff prices and a Solcast forecast.

How it works →

Copy them

The configs

The apps.yaml, automations and helpers that run this Sigenergy and Predbat setup, with secrets removed and comments added. Free to copy.

Help yourself →